[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"question:56:en-US":3},{"metadata":4,"sys":18,"fields":38},{"tags":5,"concepts":17},[6,11,14],{"sys":7},{"type":8,"linkType":9,"id":10},"Link","Tag","global",{"sys":12},{"type":8,"linkType":9,"id":13},"population",{"sys":15},{"type":8,"linkType":9,"id":16},"work",[],{"space":19,"id":23,"type":24,"createdAt":25,"updatedAt":26,"environment":27,"publishedVersion":31,"revision":32,"contentType":33,"locale":37},{"sys":20},{"type":8,"linkType":21,"id":22},"Space","ghhpjogyw4x7","d52874cdf3bce69222273232322a66d2","Entry","2021-11-11T07:08:00.980Z","2024-08-28T08:59:56.467Z",{"sys":28},{"id":29,"type":8,"linkType":30},"master","Environment",39,19,{"sys":34},{"type":8,"linkType":35,"id":36},"ContentType","question","en-US",{"globalId":39,"answers":40,"answersAsImages":60,"wrongPercentage":97,"name":98,"questionText":99,"statistics":100,"veryWrongStatistics":102,"correctSentence":104,"youWereWrong":105,"youWereRight":106,"dataSourceShortText":107,"dataSourceLinkLongText":108,"extendedAnswerText":109,"headingVeryWrong":110,"youWereVeryWrong":111,"headingWrong":110},"56",[41,62,80],{"metadata":42,"sys":45,"fields":58},{"tags":43,"concepts":44},[],[],{"space":46,"id":48,"type":24,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"environment":51,"publishedVersion":53,"revision":54,"contentType":55,"locale":37},{"sys":47},{"type":8,"linkType":21,"id":22},"baec9f8999d55584d425b82b8c03bf6a","2021-11-11T06:54:00.569Z","2024-08-28T08:59:56.511Z",{"sys":52},{"id":29,"type":8,"linkType":30},17,12,{"sys":56},{"type":8,"linkType":35,"id":57},"answer",{"globalId":59,"correctAnswer":60,"isVeryWrong":60,"answerText":61},"56-a1",false,"50%",{"metadata":63,"sys":66,"fields":76},{"tags":64,"concepts":65},[],[],{"space":67,"id":69,"type":24,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"environment":72,"publishedVersion":53,"revision":54,"contentType":74,"locale":37},{"sys":68},{"type":8,"linkType":21,"id":22},"03eeee9ac002be57584420c5dc7fec94","2021-11-11T06:54:02.124Z","2024-08-28T08:59:56.549Z",{"sys":73},{"id":29,"type":8,"linkType":30},{"sys":75},{"type":8,"linkType":35,"id":57},{"globalId":77,"correctAnswer":78,"isVeryWrong":60,"answerText":79},"56-a2",true,"60%",{"metadata":81,"sys":84,"fields":94},{"tags":82,"concepts":83},[],[],{"space":85,"id":87,"type":24,"createdAt":88,"updatedAt":89,"environment":90,"publishedVersion":53,"revision":54,"contentType":92,"locale":37},{"sys":86},{"type":8,"linkType":21,"id":22},"4a3e6854ed668c1c327ff67d56cfeed1","2021-11-11T06:54:03.800Z","2024-08-28T08:59:56.586Z",{"sys":91},{"id":29,"type":8,"linkType":30},{"sys":93},{"type":8,"linkType":35,"id":57},{"globalId":95,"correctAnswer":60,"isVeryWrong":78,"answerText":96},"56-a3","70%",82,"Today, 65% of the world’s population are of workin","Today, 65% of the world’s population are of working age (15-64 years old). What do UN experts think this number will be in 2100?",[101],"uk 0.82",[103],"uk 0.53","In 2100, UN experts expect 60% of the world’s population to be of working age.","The share of people of working age is expected to decrease, but not as much as you thought.","Most of them overestimate how much the old will outnumber the rest.\n","Source: UN Population Division","As with all predictions, there is a level of uncertainty in the data. We can never be 100% sure about what the population will look like 80 years into the future. Another group of demographic experts at the Wittgenstein Centre in Vienna have looked at the future world population as well. They estimate that the share of 15-64 year olds will be 57% in 2100. This is slightly lower than the UN's 60%, but still close to it.\n\n[1]  [Share of population aged 15-64 years, by Gapminder based on UN Pop data.](https:\u002F\u002Fdocs.google.com\u002Fspreadsheets\u002Fd\u002F1kib7g3S6IUGGRPIfSjTriIe7dbGnzge7cDNto4tr_u4\u002Fedit#gid=954230904)  \n[2]  [Population World, by age and region 1950-2100](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.gapminder.org\u002Ftools\u002F#$state$time$value=2100;&entities$show$geo$\u002F$in@=asia&=africa&=europe&=americas;;;;;&chart-type=popbyage)  \n[3]  [Population World, year 1950-2100](https:\u002F\u002Fwww.gapminder.org\u002Ftools\u002F#$state$time$value=2021;;&chart-type=popbyage)\n[4]  We consulted two independent experts for this question, including Jakub Bijak of the University of Southampton.\n","In rich countries, there’s a lot of discussion about the **“aging population”**, and alarmist news reports sometimes claim that the working population will become insufficient to care for the elderly. The population pyramid shows the expected change. In our minds, we expect this change to be much larger than the experts predict.\n\n![q895 share working age](\u002F\u002Fimages.ctfassets.net\u002Fghhpjogyw4x7\u002F7oyCmr5nnHPKECxNUwPe6M\u002F685b921b531b298bc0b7774817a0aad7\u002Fq895_share_working_age.jpg)  \n\n### Why are people wrong about this?\n\nThey hear about population forecasts and two expectations are often mentioned: the fact the population will keep growing and the fact that more people are becoming older now compared to the past. The increasing population makes many people believe that the share of those aged 15-64 will also increase. People are right that the absolute number of working age people will increase, from around 5 billion now, to 6.5 billion in 2100. But the share of elderly in the world will increase, and that brings the share of those aged 15-64 years a bit down.\n\n### Why is it a problem if people are wrong about this?\nPeople don't realize the consequences of a shrinking share of working people. Education, health care and pensions all depend on taxes from those who work. \n\n### What will the population by age look like in the future? \nRight now, 65% of the world population is between 15 and 64 years old. A quarter are younger than 15 and the rest (9%) are older than 65. \nSee [world population by age today](https:\u002F\u002Fbit.ly\u002F2TDuwzs). \n\nWith a  growing world population and the effects of aging, it is estimated that in 2100, 60% will be between 15 and 64. The share of children will go down to 17%, and the share of elderly will increase to 22%. \nSee [forecast for world population by age in 2100](https:\u002F\u002Fbit.ly\u002F2IPL8j0). \n\n### What will the population by age look like in different regions? \nIn Europe and the Americas the share of elderly will not change much by 2100. In Africa, there will still be a relatively young population in 2100 and that will compensate for the increase in elderly people in Asia. See [population by region in 2100](https:\u002F\u002Fbit.ly\u002F34xqLUO). \n\n### Can I trust this data?\nYes. Population data is slower and easier to predict than many other types of data. Stocks and weather are hard to predict by day or week, while demography can be predicted by the decades. \n","It will shrink a little","The share of people of working age is expected to decrease, not increase, as you thought."]